Linking analogue modelling to monitoring and petrology, in order to better understand magmatic processes

Volcanic eruptions cost human lives and economic expenses to local governments, due to evacuations and destruction of roads and other urban infrastructures. Economic loss is not restricted to local government, and disruption from volcanic activity can have a wide spatial and temporal range. While volcanologists are able to forecast the onset of an eruption, they are not yet capable of accurately predicting its magnitude, duration and the volume of lava which will come to the surface. A timely forecast of size, duration and type of volcanic eruption would be of great importance for governments and environmental agencies to evacuate high-risk areas, reschedule flight routes and take proper measures to eliminate the risks of the eruption. In this project we explore ways to estimate the likely temporal evolution of a volcanic eruption based on first erupted material, as well as large scale deformation patterns that could be retrieved either from satellite or ground-based deformation. Knowing the duration of an eruption is critical on a local scale to plan for short or long stay at evacuation camps, and at a regional scale it would offer the ability to plan alternative and safer flight paths. This research proposal aims to study different driving physical conditions controlling magma migration towards the surface using scaled analogue models. The associated surface deformation as well as the fluid dynamics within the ascending and erupting magma will be used to predict expected geodetic and petrological observation in the natural system. In the laboratory, different scenarios of magma ascent as a result of buoyancy, pressure and flux will be replicated by using gelatine as the crust analogue and fluids with different densities and viscosities as magma analogues. The fluid dynamical processes within the crystal bearing magma and strain within the solids will be measured by using Particle Image\Tracking Velocimetry techniques (PIV\PTV) in two and three dimensions. The derived stresses and deformations within the crust and the flow velocity as well as circulation inside the magma will be investigated for different scenarios. The circulation pattern in ascending magma, which is determined by the balance between buoyancy and flux driven migration, will determine the magma dynamics and affect the type of crystals that erupt at different stages throughout the eruption process. These fluid flow patterns will likely affect the pressure and temperature conditions of the magma to which crystals are exposed. If the rim compositions of the erupted crystals are homogenous, it may suggest a simple ascending flow pattern of the magma, whereas if the compositions are heterogeneous, it may be a sign of more complex flow. By correlating these crystal types erupting at different eruption stages with the flow rates and circulation pattern within the magma it would be possible to forecast the duration of volcanic eruptions. Similarly, the time evolution of the deformation pattern will be linked to the magma migration. By combining temporal analysis of both large-scale deformation and petrological analysis we aim to gain the knowledge to forecast the duration of an eruptive event and communicate this information to the appropriate agency in order to be included in decision making.