Erratum: Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (2016) 113: 11 (E1434-E1441) DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1517056113)

Correction for "Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era," by Robert E. Kopp, Andrew C. Kemp, Klaus Bittermann, Benjamin P. Horton, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, W. Roland Gehrels, Carling C. Hay, Jerry X. Mitrovica, Eric D. Morrow, and Stefan Rahmstorf, which appeared in issue 11, March 15, 2016, of Proc Natl Acad Sci USA (113:E1434-E1441; first published February 22, 2016; 10.1073/pnas.1517056113). The authors wish to note the following: "In the semiempirical hindcasts of 20th century global warming-driven sea-level change, an error occurred when estimating historical sea-level change (H in Fig. 1B; red curves in Fig. S4) from the samples of historical temperature, T_j″ (red curves in Fig. S4 Insets). The estimate of historical sea-level change (Table 1, row labeled 'Historical') is necessary to calculate the fraction of sea-level change not driven by global warming, and so this error also affected the estimates of this fraction (Table 1, rows under the heading 'Percent of historical'). As described, to generate each T_j″, each temperature sample T_j from the proxy-based temperature distribution was replaced after 1900 with a global temperature estimate based on weather station data. The HadCRUT4 global temperature data (not HadCRUT3, as originally stated) were used. These data should have been shifted so as to minimize the misfit between the HadCRUT4 record and each T_j over the period 1850-1900. Unfortunately, a coding error led to an alignment that yielded samples T_j″ that were 0.06°C too high after 1900. As a consequence, we note the below changes. "The initially published version of the paper states that the hindcast 20^th century GSL rise, driven by observed temperatures, is ∼13 cm, with a 90% credible interval of 7.7-17.5 cm. The corrected hindcast projection is ∼11 cm, with a 90% credible interval of 6.0-15.4 cm (Table 1, row labeled 'Historical'). This remains consistent with the observed GSL rise of 13.8 ± 1.5 cm. "The initially published version of the paper states that, of the hindcast 20th century GSL rise, it is very likely (P = 0.90) that -27% to 41% of the total (scenario 1) or -10% to 51% of the total (scenario 2) would have occurred in the absence of anthropogenic warming. The corrected values are -32% to 51% (scenario 1) and -13% to 59% (scenario 2) (Table 1, rows under the heading 'Percent of historical'). "The initially published version of the paper states that, under all calibrations and scenarios, it is likely (P > 0.83) that observed 20^th century GSL rise exceeded the nonanthropogenic counter-factuals by 1940 CE and extremely likely (P ≥ 0.95) that it had done so by 1950 CE. In the corrected results, it is likely (P > 0.88) that the observed 20^th century GSL rise exceeded the nonanthropogenic counterfactuals by 1950 CE and extremely likely (P ≥ 0.95) that it had done so by 1970 CE (Dataset S1, h)." The authors also note that on page E1439, left column, Eq. 10, line 3, dc(t)/dt = c/τ₂ should instead appear as dc(t)/dt = -c/τ₂. The corrected Table 1, Fig. 1, and its corresponding legend appear below. In the online Supporting Information, Dataset S1, Fig. S4, and its corresponding legend have been corrected and updated.