Evaluating Knowledge Gaps in Sea-Level Rise Assessments From the United States

Andra J. Garner*, Sarah E. Sosa, Fangyi Tan, Christabel Wan Jie Tan, Gregory G. Garner, Benjamin P. Horton

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

There have been many scientific advances regarding future sea-level projections, however it is unclear if these have been transferred to assessment reports used by stakeholders. Here, we present a first-of-its-kind comprehensive analysis of regional sea-level rise (SLR) assessments for the United States (U.S.). We identify variations in time horizons over which regions plan for SLR, with 25 projections from the U.S. Northeast and West that extend to 2150 or beyond, but no projections from the U.S. South beyond 2100. The majority of 2100 projections from the U.S. Northeast (77%) and West (83%) include ranges of future SLR, while 88% of projections from the U.S. South include only single estimates. At least 56% of U.S. communities in the database underestimate the upper end of future SLR compared to the regional projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2022EF003187
JournalEarth's Future
Volume11
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2023
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

  • General Environmental Science
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

Keywords

  • assessment reports
  • climate change
  • IPCC
  • projections
  • sea-level rise
  • U.S. coastlines

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