Holistic risk assessment of container shipping service based on Bayesian Network Modelling

Yusheng Zhou, Xue Li, Kum Fai Yuen*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

61 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Container shipping makes significant contribution to the global economy and is confronted with various hazards and risks especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. These risks can disrupt resilient container shipping service, leading to further deterioration of the global economy. Hence, it is vital to develop resilient container shipping service, which is associated with being on-time, safe, and hassle-free. Theoretically, this research identifies 28 root risks using the PESTLE framework, conducts risk assessment using a hybrid method comprising failure modes and effects analysis, evidential reasoning, and rule-based Bayesian network. A three-hierarchy Bayesian network model is established. The results reveal that economic, political, and technical risks are the most threatening risks affecting resilient container shipping service. Moreover, the holistic container shipping risk is most sensitive to environmental risks. Managerially, this research provides container shipping companies with guidance of drafting risk mitigation plans with economic risks and political risks as priorities.

Original languageEnglish
Article number108305
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Volume220
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2022
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

Keywords

  • Container shipping
  • Evidential reasoning
  • Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA)
  • Risk assessment
  • Rule-based Bayesian network

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Holistic risk assessment of container shipping service based on Bayesian Network Modelling'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this