Is international shipping in right direction towards carbon emissions control?

Aligned with the goals of International Maritime Organization (IMO) to achieve zero emissions in maritime transport, the shipping industry is under increasing pressures to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. This study uses the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method within the Kaya identity to analyze the historical trends and future projects in carbon emissions of international shipping from 2010 to 2050, focusing on main driving factors. The findings reveal that as emission regulations tighten, global economic growth and expanding seaborne trade are likely to drive total carbon emissions upward. However, the improvements in carbon intensity and energy efficiency exhibit a downward trend. Among these scenarios, the net-zero decarbonization pathway emerges as the most effective, achieving reductions in carbon emissions of 92.15 % and 40 % by 2050 compared to the business-as-usual and industrial pathways, respectively. Regional analysis indicates that Europe has effectively managed emissions in line with stringent regulations, whereas emissions in Asia and Oceania have increased due to the rapid growth of seaborne trade. For the ship type, oil tankers and bulk carriers are identified as the largest contributors to emissions, reflecting their dominant role in global trade volume. Such measures accelerate the industrial transition towards sustainable development, aligning with decarbonization targets.