Methods for mitigating uncertainty in real-time operations of a connected microgrid

In this paper, we compare the effectiveness of a two-stage control strategy for the energy management system (EMS) of a grid-connected microgrid under uncertain solar irradiance and load demand using a real-world dataset from an island in Southeast Asia (SEA). The first stage computes a day-ahead commitment for power profile exchanged with the main grid, while the second stage focuses on real-time controls to minimize the system operating cost. Given the challenges in accurately forecasting solar irradiance for a long time horizon, scenario-based stochastic programming (SP) is considered for the first stage. For the second stage, as the most recent weather conditions can be used, several methodologies to handle the uncertainties are investigated, including: (1) the rule-based method historically deployed on EMS, (2) model predictive controller (MPC) using either an explicit forecast or scenario-based stochastic forecast, and (3) Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) computing its own implicit forecast through a distribution of costs. Performances of these methodologies are compared in terms of precision with a reference control assuming perfect forecast – i.e. representing the minimal achievable operation cost in theory. Obtained results show that MPC with a stochastic forecast outperforms MPC with a simple deterministic prediction. This suggests that using an explicit forecast, even within a short time window, is challenging. Using weather conditions can, however, be more efficient, as demonstrated by DRL (with implicit forecast), outperforming MPC with stochastic forecast by 1.3%.