Robust Sea-Level Projections for Singapore by 2100 and 2150

Trina Ng*, Gregory Garner, Jennifer H. Weeks, Peter Hogarth, Matthew D. Palmer, Tanghua Li, Aurel Moise, Benjamin P. Horton

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Rising sea levels pose a critical challenge for low-lying countries such as Singapore, highlighting the need for accurate projections to inform adaptation strategies. However, data limitations, climate model uncertainties, and regional deviations complicate these projections. Here, we evaluate relative sea-level rise (RSLR) projections for Singapore by 2100 and 2150 based on Singapore's Second National Climate Change Study (V2), UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), and new V3 projections. Projections are provided under low (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) and high (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5) emissions scenarios at six tide gauges across Singapore. The V3 projections reflect a correction to the erroneous tide-gauge record at Sembawang, which affected the contribution of vertical land movement (VLM) to the IPCC AR6 projections. The correction shows VLM adds 0.14 m by 2100 and 0.21 m by 2150 to RSLR at Sembawang. By 2100, V3 projections indicate a RSLR of 0.42 m (likely range: 0.26–0.63 m) under low emissions increasing to 0.67 m (0.38–1.07 m) by 2150. Under high emissions, RSLR is 0.75 m (0.58–1.04 m) by 2100, increasing to 1.32 m (0.9–1.95 m) by 2150. We find that ocean sterodynamics is the largest contributor to RSLR (∼40%) although uncertainties related to Antarctic ice sheet contributions are greater. Our findings highlight the need for accurate data especially from historical archives to improve the robustness of VLM and RSLR projections in Singapore and elsewhere.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2024JC021840
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
Volume130
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 2025
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2025. Crown Copyright and The Author(s). This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the King's Printer for Scotland.

ASJC Scopus Subject Areas

  • Oceanography
  • Geophysics
  • Geochemistry and Petrology
  • Space and Planetary Science
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)

Keywords

  • relative sea-level
  • sea-level projections
  • Singapore
  • vertical land movement

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