The importance of accounting for equity in disaster risk models

Societal efforts to understand and mitigate threats posed by hazards are often informed by complex disaster risk models. Despite research demonstrating the disproportionate effects of disasters on vulnerable groups, current risk modeling approaches lack robust methods to account for such equity concerns. Consequently, efforts to develop evidence-based disaster risk management interventions may lack awareness of differential risks in the settings where they are applied. Here, we draw on the relevant literature to develop a typology for characterizing current approaches to incorporating equity into risk modeling. Using this typology, we then evaluated 69 risk assessments conducted by major international development organizations. We found that only ~ 28% of risk models attempt a quantitative evaluation of the differential impacts of disasters and climate change. We then used an equity-sensitive approach to reconstruct a recent risk assessment and show that important elements are missed when equity is excluded in disaster risk modeling.