Thresholds of mangrove survival under rapid sea level rise

N. Saintilan; N. S. Khan; E. Ashe; J. J. Kelleway; K. Rogers; C. D. Woodroffe; B. P. Horton

doi:10.1126/science.aba2656

Thresholds of mangrove survival under rapid sea level rise

N. Saintilan^*, N. S. Khan, E. Ashe, J. J. Kelleway, K. Rogers, C. D. Woodroffe, B. P. Horton

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

283 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The response of mangroves to high rates of relative sea level rise (RSLR) is poorly understood. We explore the limits of mangrove vertical accretion to sustained periods of RSLR in the final stages of deglaciation. The timing of initiation and rate of mangrove vertical accretion were compared with independently modeled rates of RSLR for 78 locations. Mangrove forests expanded between 9800 and 7500 years ago, vertically accreting thick sequences of organic sediments at a rate principally driven by the rate of RSLR, representing an important carbon sink. We found it very likely (>90% probability) that mangroves were unable to initiate sustained accretion when RSLR rates exceeded 6.1 millimeters per year. This threshold is likely to be surpassed on tropical coastlines within 30 years under high-emissions scenarios.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1118-1121
Number of pages	4
Journal	Science
Volume	368
Issue number	6495
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba2656
Publication status	Published - Jun 5 2020
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works

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title = "Thresholds of mangrove survival under rapid sea level rise",

abstract = "The response of mangroves to high rates of relative sea level rise (RSLR) is poorly understood. We explore the limits of mangrove vertical accretion to sustained periods of RSLR in the final stages of deglaciation. The timing of initiation and rate of mangrove vertical accretion were compared with independently modeled rates of RSLR for 78 locations. Mangrove forests expanded between 9800 and 7500 years ago, vertically accreting thick sequences of organic sediments at a rate principally driven by the rate of RSLR, representing an important carbon sink. We found it very likely (>90% probability) that mangroves were unable to initiate sustained accretion when RSLR rates exceeded 6.1 millimeters per year. This threshold is likely to be surpassed on tropical coastlines within 30 years under high-emissions scenarios.",

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AU - Saintilan, N.

AU - Khan, N. S.

AU - Ashe, E.

AU - Kelleway, J. J.

AU - Rogers, K.

AU - Woodroffe, C. D.

AU - Horton, B. P.

PY - 2020/6/5

Y1 - 2020/6/5

N2 - The response of mangroves to high rates of relative sea level rise (RSLR) is poorly understood. We explore the limits of mangrove vertical accretion to sustained periods of RSLR in the final stages of deglaciation. The timing of initiation and rate of mangrove vertical accretion were compared with independently modeled rates of RSLR for 78 locations. Mangrove forests expanded between 9800 and 7500 years ago, vertically accreting thick sequences of organic sediments at a rate principally driven by the rate of RSLR, representing an important carbon sink. We found it very likely (>90% probability) that mangroves were unable to initiate sustained accretion when RSLR rates exceeded 6.1 millimeters per year. This threshold is likely to be surpassed on tropical coastlines within 30 years under high-emissions scenarios.

AB - The response of mangroves to high rates of relative sea level rise (RSLR) is poorly understood. We explore the limits of mangrove vertical accretion to sustained periods of RSLR in the final stages of deglaciation. The timing of initiation and rate of mangrove vertical accretion were compared with independently modeled rates of RSLR for 78 locations. Mangrove forests expanded between 9800 and 7500 years ago, vertically accreting thick sequences of organic sediments at a rate principally driven by the rate of RSLR, representing an important carbon sink. We found it very likely (>90% probability) that mangroves were unable to initiate sustained accretion when RSLR rates exceeded 6.1 millimeters per year. This threshold is likely to be surpassed on tropical coastlines within 30 years under high-emissions scenarios.

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Thresholds of mangrove survival under rapid sea level rise

Abstract

Bibliographical note

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