Trends in the incidence of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus and cardia in the Netherlands 1989-2003

Over the 15-year period 1989-2003, the incidence of oesophagus-cardia adenocarcinoma in the Netherlands rose annually by 2.6% for males and 1.2% for females. This was the net outcome of annual increases in the incidence of adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus (ACO) of 7.2% for males and 3.5% for females and annual declines in the incidence of adenocarcinoma of the gastric cardia (AGC) of more than 1% for both genders. Nonlinear cohort patterns were found in females with ACO and for both genders in AGC; a nonlinear period pattern was observed only in males with AGC. These differing epidemiological patterns for ACO and AGC do not support a common aetiology. Proposed underlying factors for the rise in ACO incidence appear to have little effect on AGC incidence. This and the secular decline in smoking among males may have led to the decline in AGC incidence.